000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150311
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico Fri through early Saturday. Strong northerly
winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela Pass and
generate gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
beginning early Sat, and continue through early Sun. Seas are 
expected to build to 14 ft during the time of gale conditions. 
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 07N100W to 09N108W to
07N116W. The ITCZ continues from 07N116W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N 
between 97W and 113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

There is a gale warning for the Tehuantepec region. Please see 
Special Features section for more details.

Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the offshore 
waters of Baja California and SW Mexico, and are expected to 
through Mon evening as a ridge remains in place NW of the area. 

Large NW swell continues to propagate through the waters west of
the Baja California, with seas to 10 ft reaching Baja California
Sur as indicated by a recent altimeter pass. Seas greater than 8
ft will continue through Fri, briefly subside to 7-8 ft on Fri
night, then increase again Sat as reinforcing NW swell enters 
the region. This new swell will spread across the remainder of 
the offshore waters west of Baja California through Sun. A low 
pressure area will develop NW of Punta Eugenia on Mon, then move
across the Baja California offshore waters through Tue, with 
fresh to strong winds expected, and building seas to 13 ft. 

Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin 
region of United States is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds
across the Gulf of California. Strong NW winds are expected over
the northern and central gulf Fri morning before diminishing to
moderate later in the evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through 
the middle of next week. Large seas generated by gales in the 
Tehuantepec region will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador Sat through Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure well north of the area extends a ridge into the
northern forecast waters. The gradient between this ridge and 
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. 
Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell 
and NE-E wind waves. 

Large long period NW swell continues to propagate across the 
forecast region. Another pulse of large NW swell is entering the
NW part of the area, with maximum seas to 18-19 ft near 30N140W.
These successive sets of NW swell will maintain seas greater 
than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through 
the end of the week. 

$$
Mundell