000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge extends across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough continues to support gale force winds across the Tehuantepec region. The area of high pressure will weaken and shift eastward tonight into Thu. This will loosen the pressure gradient, diminishing winds below gale force over the Tehuantepec region by Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec once again Fri night through Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to low pres near 06N101W to 06N117W. The ITCZ extends from 06N117W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 81W and 88W, from 04N to 08N between 91W and 107W, and from 05N to 10B between 129W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale force winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell continues to propagate through the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are in the 10-12 ft range off Baja California Norte, and 8-10 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas 8 ft or greater will continue through Fri before briefly subsiding below 8 ft Fri night into early Sat. A new set of NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte Sat. This swell will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula, once again increasing seas to 8 ft or greater over these waters through Sun. Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds across the central and south parts of the Gulf of California. with peak seas around 6 ft. These winds will persist tonight before diminishing early Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region through tonight. Winds will then pulse to strong each night through the upcoming weekend. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to the south. Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec region continue to impact the outer portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas over this area will be in the 8-10 ft range through Thu night before subsiding below 8 ft early Fri. Another gale force gap wind event over the Tehuantepec region will once again generate large seas which will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat night through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 33N127W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast region, with seas 8 ft or greater across much of the waters west of 100W. Another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night. Seas with this swell will peak to 18-19 ft near 30N140W early Fri. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the end of the week. $$ AL