000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132137 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico along with the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough continues to support gale force winds across the region. Seas are up to 14 ft. The area of high pressure will weaken and shift eastward tonight into Thu. This will loosen the pressure gradient, diminishing winds below gale force by Thu morning along with subsiding seas. Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec again Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Colombia coast near 05N77W to 06N40W to a 1010 mb low near 07N100W to 06N113W. The ITCZ continues from 06N113W to 06N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N between 80W to 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 91W to 106W and from 06N to 09N between 126W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale force winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell continues to propagate through the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 7-11 ft range through Fri. Seas will briefly subside below 8 ft through Sat. A new set of NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte on Sat and spread across the waters west of Baja California through Sun. Seas will subside briefly by Mon morning as another set of NW swell enters the region and continue into Tue. In the Gulf of California, high pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds across the central and south parts of the Gulf of California. Peak seas are around 6 ft. These winds will persist today before diminishing by Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Papagayo region, nightly fresh to strong winds are expected through the weekend and into early next week. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to the south. Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will impact the outer portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas over this area will be in the 8-10 ft range through Thu night before subsiding below 8 ft early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 34N127W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast region, with seas 8 ft or greater across the waters west of 100W. The pulse of NW swell has been propagating across the NW waters with seas greater than 12 ft NW of a line from 30N125W to 17N140W. Seas will begin to subside by Thu. Another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night as a cold front approaches the area. Seas with this swell will peak to 16 ft near 30N140W early Fri. This swell event will propagate eastward toward Baja California through Sat. By Sat morning, another cold front will approach the area and bring another pulse of NW swell Sat through Sun. This swell event will peak near 17 ft on Sun near 30N140W. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through early next week. $$ AREINHART