652 AXPZ20 KNHC 131600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico eastern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough continues to support gale force winds across the Tehuantepec region. Seas are up to 12 ft in the area. The area of high pressure will weaken and shift eastward tonight into Thu. This will loosen the pressure gradient, diminishing winds below gale force over the Tehuantepec region by Thu afternoon along with subsiding seas. Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec once again Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Colombia coast near 08N78W to 06N90W to a 1010 mb low near 06N99W to 05N119W. The ITCZ continues from 05N119W to 05N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 80W to 106W, and from 06N to 09N between 123W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale force winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell continues to propagate through the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 7-10 ft range. Additional pulses of large NW swell will reach this region maintaining seas 8 ft or greater over this area through Fri. Seas will briefly subside below 8 ft Fri night into early Sat. A new set of NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte Sat. This swell will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula, once again increasing seas to 8 ft or greater over these waters through Mon. In the Gulf of California, high pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds across the central and south parts of the Gulf of California. Peak seas are around 6 ft. These winds will persist today before diminishing by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region through tonight. Winds will then pulse to strong each night through the weekend. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to the south. Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will impact the outer portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Thu. Seas over this area will be in the 8-10 ft range through Thu night before subsiding below 8 ft early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 32N128W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast region, with seas 8 ft or greater across the waters west of 100W. A new pulse of NW swell has been propagating across the NW waters, with seas greater than 12 ft NW of a line from 30N125W to 17N140W. This pulse of swell will begin to subside by Thu. Another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night as a cold front moves eastward toward the area. Seas with this swell will peak to 16 ft near 30N140W early Fri. This swell event will propagate eastward toward Baja California through Sat. By Sat morning, another cold front will begin approaching the area. This will bring yet another pulse of NW swell Sat through Sun. This swell event will peak near 18-19 ft on Sun near 30N140W. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through early next week. $$ AReinhart