000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130848 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge extends across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough continues to support gale force winds across the Tehuantepec region. The area of high pressure will weaken and shift eastward tonight into Thu. This will loosen the pressure gradient, diminishing winds below gale force over the Tehuantepec region by Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec once again Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N98W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 95W and 110W, and from 08N to 10N between 122W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale force winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell continues to propagate through the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 7-10 ft range. Additional pulses of large NW swell will reach this region maintaining seas 8 ft or greater over this area through Fri. Seas will briefly subside below 8 ft Fri night into early Sat. A new set of NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte Sat. This swell will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula, once again increasing seas to 8 ft or greater over these waters through Sun. Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds across the central and south parts of the Gulf of California. with peak seas around 6 ft. These winds will persist today before diminishing. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region through tonight. Winds will then pulse to strong each night through the upcoming weekend. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to the south. Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will impact the outer portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Thu. Seas over this area will be in the 8-10 ft range through Thu night before subsiding below 8 ft early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 30N129W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and within the monsoon trough, is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast region, with seas 8 ft or greater across the waters west of 100W. A new pulse of NW swell has been propagating across the NW waters, with seas greater than 12 ft NW of a line from 30N123W to 18N140W. Yet another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night. Seas with this swell will peak to 18-19 ft near 30N140W early Fri. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the end of the week. $$ AL