000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120845 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jan 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico continue to funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale conditions, with winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, are forecast to continue through Thu. Large seas generated from this gap wind event will spread well downwind and away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas greater than 12 ft reaching as far as 10N100W tonight. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force Thu. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N93W to 09N112W. The ITCZ continues from 09N112W to 10N121W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 107W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale force winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell continues to propagate through the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas of 10-12 ft prevailing. Additional pulses of large NW swell will reach this region maintaining seas 8 ft or greater over this area for much of the week. Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the northern and central Gulf of California. These fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the north and central parts of the Gulf through midweek, with peak seas around 6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to strong at night through the middle of the week. Seas will build to 9 or 10 ft during this time. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to the south. Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight through Thu. Seas will peak 10-13 ft today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 30N128W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. These general marine conditions will persist during the next few days. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater across the waters west of 100W. Another pulse of NW swell has entered the NW waters, with seas to 15 ft near 30N140W. Seas with this swell are expected to peak near 16 or 17 ft near 30N140W today. Yet another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night, with seas of up to 18-19 ft near 30N140W. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through much of the week. $$ AL