000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jan 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico has reached the central Bay of Campeche. Northerly winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, increasing winds to gale force later this morning. Gale conditions, with winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, are forecast to continue through Thu. Large seas generated from this gap wind event will spread well downwind and away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas greater than 12 ft reaching as far as 10N100W Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 07N98W. The ITCZ continues from 07N98W to 09N116W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 117W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 07N between 78W and 83W, and from 07N to 10N between 96W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The next gale force gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting later this morning. Please see Special Features section for more details. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell is propagating through the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 11-15 ft prevail N of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted elsewhere west of the Baja peninsula, extending further south to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Additional pulses of large NW swell will continue to propagate across this region maintaining seas 8 ft or greater over this area for much of the week. Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States will support fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the north and central parts of the Gulf through midweek. Peak seas are expected to build to around 6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to strong at night through the middle of the week. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to the south. Large seas generated by gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight. Seas will peak 10-13 ft on Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 32N127W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. These general marine conditions will persist during the next few days. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across most of the forecast waters over the next several days. Another pulse of NW swell is currently spreading SE across the forecast region with seas of 12-15 ft NW of a line from 30N116W to 23N120W to 13N140W to another line from 30N130W to 17N140W. Another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Tuesday, with seas peaking 16 or 17 ft near 30N140W. Yet another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the week. $$ GR