000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110240
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf 
of Mexico will reach the central Bay of Campeche Mon. Northerly 
winds behind the front will funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
increasing winds to gale force Mon afternoon. Gale conditions, 
with winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, are forecast to continue 
through Thu. Large seas generated from this gap wind event will 
spread well downwind and away from the Tehuantepec area, with 
seas greater than 12 ft reaching as far as 10N100W Tue night. 
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N94W to 09N110W to 07N125W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 105W and
111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 10N between 120W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The next gale force gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec starting Mon afternoon. Please see Special Features 
section for more details.

Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected 
across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next 
several days as a ridge remains in place. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in 
NW swell prevail west of the Baja peninsula extending further 
south to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Additional pulses of 
large NW swell will continue to propagate across this region 
building seas to 12-15 ft N of Punta Eugenia tonight, and N of 
Cabo San Lazaro on Mon. Seas will slightly subside on Tue.

Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin 
region of United States will support fresh to locally strong NW-N
winds across the north and central parts of the Gulf through at 
least Wed. Peak seas are expected to build to around 6 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will
pulse to strong at night through the middle of the week. Outside
of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds
are expected to the south. 

Large seas generated by gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec 
region will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador starting Mon night. Seas will peak 10-13 ft on Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 30N132W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh north 
of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 
8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. These 
general marine conditions will persist during the next few days, 
while the NW swell gradually propagates southeastward, and is 
replaced by a new pulse of NW swell Mon and Tue.

Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across most of 
the forecast waters over the next several days. Another pulse 
of NW swell is currently spreading SE across the forecast region
with seas of 12-17 ft NW of a line from 30N120W to 14N140W. Yet 
another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Tuesday, with 
seas peaking near 16 ft over the NW waters Tue.

$$
AL