000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico this evening, reaching the central Bay of Campeche Mon afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front will funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, increasing winds to gale force Mon afternoon. Gale conditions, with winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, are forecast to continue through Thu. Large seas generated from this gap wind event will spread well downwind and away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas greater than 12 ft reaching as far as 10N100W Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 08N110W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis W of 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The next gale force gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Mon afternoon. Please see Special Features section for more details. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days as a ridge remains in place. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell are noted beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Additional pulses of large NW swell will continue to propagate across this region building seas to 12-15 ft N of Punta Eugenia tonight, and N of Cabo San Lazaro on Mon. Seas will slightly subside on Tue. Gulf of California: The most recent scatterometer pass showed NW winds of 20-25 kt in the Gulf of California from 25N to 27N W of 110W. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds are expected mainly across the north and central parts of the Gulf through at least Wed. Peak seas are expected to build to around 6 ft. This will be associated with a high pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to strong at night through the middle of the week. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of it. Large seas generated by gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador starting Mon night. Seas will peak 10-13 ft on Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 30N130W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ , and mainly from 07N to 20N W of 130W. Recent satellite-derived wind data confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. These general marine conditions will persist during the next few days, while the NW swell gradually propagates southeastward, and is replaced by a new pulse of NW swell Mon and Tue. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across most of the forecast waters over the next several days. Another pulse of NW swell is currently spreading SE across the forecast region with seas of 12-18 ft NW of a line from 30N124W to 18N140W. Seas of 21-22 ft were observed over the NW of the forecast area this morning based on altimeter data. Yet another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Tuesday, with seas of 12-16 ft NW of a line from 30N130W to 22N140W by Tue afternoon. $$ GR