000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jan 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A broad high pressure ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico has weakened during the past 12 hours. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough has also weakened, and allowed northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to diminish below gale force, to around 30 kt this afternoon. The Gale Warning has thus ended as of 1800 UTC. Seas downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are in the 9-13 ft range. Winds and seas will diminish gradually through most of tonight and then significantly on Sun as the pressure gradient loosens. Winds are expected to diminish below 20 kt and seas less than 6 ft by Sun evening. Looking ahead, another gale-force wind event is expected to start Mon and continue through early Fri. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N70W to 09N82W to 06N98W to 06.5N105W. The ITCZ continues from 07N106W to 08N118W to 06N134W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02.5N to 06.5N between 78W and 88W, from 06N to 11N between 105W and 118W, and from 13N to 16.5N between 101W and 109W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 09N between 122W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features above for details on the improving marine conditions across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as well as Gale Conditions Possible there next week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California and north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight, then become N to NE winds over the next several days as a ridge remains in place just NW of the area. Large NW swell, with seas in the 10-13 ft range west of Baja California Norte, and in the 8-11 ft range west of Baja California Sur dominate the waters west of the Baja peninsula. Additional pulses of large NW swell will continue to propagate across this region through next week. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the Gulf of California this afternoon. Winds are forecast to increase from north of south across the basin this evening into early Sun as high pressure builds over the Great Basin region of the United States. Winds in the northern and central Gulf are expected to become fresh to strong tonight, then diminish to moderate to fresh through early next week. Peak seas are expected to build to around 6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to strong at night through the middle of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through Mon, except for moderate to briefly fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Large seas generated by gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region continue to move through the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador this afternoon, but will subside tonight through Sun as winds diminish across Tehuantepec. Large NW seas will develop again across these waters early next week as another gale force wind event develops across the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 121W. Seas in this area are in the 8-13 ft range in a mix of NW swell and E-NE wind waves. These general marine conditions will persist during the next few days, while the NW swell gradually propagates southeastward, and is replaced by a new pulse of NW swell Mon and Tue. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across most of the forecast waters, with sea heights of 8-12 ft covering much of the waters west of 100W. Seas are now peaking near 14 ft N of 27N between 117W and 130W. Another pulse of NW swell will enter into the NW waters during the next several hours, with seas peaking near 20 ft there early tonight. Yet another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Tuesday. $$ Stripling