000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting northerly gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These gale force winds will continue through late this morning, then gradually diminish through tonight. Seas downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are in the 10-13 ft range. Winds and seas will diminish significantly late tonight through Sun as high pressure north of the area weakens and the pressure gradient loosens. Looking ahead, another gale-force wind event is expected to start Mon and continue through early Fri. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N75W to 05N83W to 07N105W. The ITCZ continues from 07N105W to 08N120W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 83W, and from 05.5N to 10N between 124W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 08N between 90W and 108W, from 07N to 10.5N between 109W and 122W, and from 13N to 15.5N between 101W and 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as well as Gale Conditions Possible there next week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California and north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight, then becoming N to NE over the next several days as a ridge remains in place just NW of the area. Large NW swell, with seas in the 10-13 ft range west of Baja California Norte, and in the 8-11 ft range west of Baja California Sur dominate the waters west of the Baja peninsula. Additional pulses of large NW swell will continue to propagate across this region through next week. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the Gulf of California today. Winds are forecast to increase tonight into early Sun as high pressure builds over the Great Basin region of the United States. Winds in the northern and central Gulf are expected to become fresh to strong early Sun, then diminish to moderate to fresh through early next week. Peak seas are expected to build to around 6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to strong at night through Mon. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through Mon, except for moderate to briefly fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Large seas generated by gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region will reach the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today, and then again early next week as another gale force wind event develops across the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-13 ft range in a mix of NW swell and E-NE wind waves. These general marine conditions will persist during the next few days, while the NW swell gradually propagates southeastward. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across most of the forecast waters, with sea heights of 8-12 ft covering much of the waters west of 100W. Seas are peaking near 15 ft N of 27N between 117W and 130W. Another pulse of NW swell will move into the NW waters today, with seas peaking near 20 ft there tonight. Yet another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters next Tuesday. $$ Stripling