000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052102
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 06N81W to 09N87W to 08N110W
to 06N117W. The ITCZ continues from 06N117W to 07N130W to 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N E of 90W 
to the coast of Colombia.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The most recent scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NW-N
winds N of 26N and E of 119W, including the Sebastian Vizcaino 
Bay. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected across the 
offshore waters of Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro over 
the next several days as a ridge remains in place. Seas in the 
10 to 13 ft range in NW swell dominate the waters N of Cabo San 
Lazaro while seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted beyond the Revillagigedo
Islands. This swell event will continue to propagate across the
region through Wed. Another set of NW swell, with seas of 12-14 
ft will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Thu.

Gulf of California: Mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds are 
expected across the Gulf of California. Winds are forecast to 
increase to moderate to strong during the upcoming weekend as a 
high pressure settles over the Great Basin region of United 
States.

Farther south in the Tehuantepec region, fresh to strong northerly
winds and seas of 8-9 ft will prevail across the area through 
early Wed morning. These marine conditions will return again by 
Thu afternoon as the next cold front moves across the Gulf of 
Mexico. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force Thu night 
through Sat, with seas building up to 12 or 13 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo 
through tonight, with seas building to 6-7 ft. Then, moderate to
fresh winds will persist through Fri when winds are forecast to
increase again to 20-25 kt as high pressure builds over the
western Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail
N of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
are expected S of it. Long period NW swell will continue to 
spread across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, 
and Ecuador over the next several days, but seas will remain 
under 8 ft. Seas of 8 ft, generated in the Tehuantepec region, 
will reach the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador 
toward the end of the work-week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb located near 28N130W dominates the 
forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly 
from 09N-21N W of 120W. Seas are in the 9-12 ft range in NW
swell. These marine conditions will persist over the next 48-72
hours.

Long period NW swell continues to propagate across most of the 
forecast waters N of the equator and W of 100W, raising seas to 
8 to 12 ft, except 12 to 16 ft N of 20N and W of 115W. Another 
set of NW swell will reach the NW corner of the forecast region 
on Wed. On this day, seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most 
of the waters N of 03.4S and W of 95W. Looking ahead, the next
large and long period NW swell event is forecast to reach the NW
waters by Thu night, with seas up to 16-18 ft. 

$$
GR