000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051522
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 06N82W to 08N95W to 
06N117W. The ITCZ continues from 06N117W to 07N130W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N E of 90W
to the coast of Colombia.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The most recent scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NW-N
winds N of 26N and E of 119W, including the Sebastian Vizcaino 
Bay. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected across the 
offshore waters of Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro over 
the next several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell, with
sea heights in the 8 to 11 ft are noted beyond the Revillagigedo
Islands. Seas in the 12 to 15 ft range dominate the waters N of 
Cabo San Lazaro today. This will persist through Wed. Another 
swell event, with seas of 12-14 ft will reach the waters N of 
Punta Eugenia on Thu. 

Farther south in the Tehuantepec region, fresh to strong northerly
winds and seas of 6-8 ft will prevail across the area through 
early Wed morning. These marine conditions will return again late
on Thu as the next cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. 
Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force Thu night through 
Sat, with seas building up to 11 or 12 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo 
through tonight, with seas building to 6-7 ft. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough while gentle
to moderate S to SW winds are expected S of it. Moderate to 
fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama today as high 
pressure builds N of area. Long period NW swell will continue to 
spread across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, 
and Ecuador over the next several days, but seas will remain 
under 8 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb located near 28N129W dominates the 
forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly 
from 10N-25N W of 120W. 

Long period NW swells are propagating across most of the forecast 
waters N of the equator and W of 100W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, 
except 12 to 15 ft N of 20N and W of 115W. Another set of NW 
swell will reach the NW corner of the forecast region on Wed. On 
this day, seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the 
waters N of 03.4S and W of 95W. Looking ahead, the next NW swell
event is forecast to reach the NW waters by Thu night, with seas
up to 16-18 ft. 

$$
GR