000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050824
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N118W. ITCZ extends
from 06N118W to 06N140. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
along and north of the ITCZ mainly west of 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore
waters of Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro over the next
several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell, with sea 
heights in the 8 to 11 ft are noted beyond the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across 
the area building seas up to 13 ft N of Punta Eugenia towards the
morning, and N of Cabo San Lazaro today. This will persist on 
Wed. Another swell event, with seas of 12-14 ft will reach the 
waters N of Punta Eugenia by late Wed.

Farther south in the Tehuantepec region, fresh northerly winds 
and seas of 6-8 ft will prevail across the area through Tue 
night. These marine conditions will return again late on Thu as 
the next cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds may 
reach minimal gale force Thu night into Fri, with seas building 
up to 10 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo 
through tonight, with seas building to 6-7 ft. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough while gentle
to moderate S to SW winds are expected S of it. Moderate to 
fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama today as high 
pressure builds N of area. Long period NW swell will continue to 
spread across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, 
and Ecuador over the next several days, but seas will remain 
under 8 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb located near 28N131W dominates the 
forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly 
from 10N-25N W of 120W. 

Long period NW swells are propagating across most of the forecast 
waters N of the equator and W of 110W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, 
except 12 to 15 ft NW of a line from 30N117W TO 21N140W. Another
set of NW swell will reach the NW corner of the forecast region 
on Wed. On this day, seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most 
of the waters N of the equator and W of 100W, with seas in the 
12-15 ft range affecting the area N of 20N W of 115W. Looking 
ahead, the next NW swell event is forecast to reach the NW waters
by Thu night, with seas up to 16-18 ft. 

$$
ERA