000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 06N80W to 07N87W to 07N98W. The ITCZ continues from 07N98W to 08N108W to 08N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between 78W and 83W, from 09N to 11N between 111W and 115W, and from 05N to 11N between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro over the next several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell, with sea heights in the 8 to 11 ft are noted beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the area building seas up to 13 or 14 ft N of Punta Eugenia this evening, and N of Cabo San Lazaro by Tue morning. This will persist on Wed. Another swell event, with seas of 12-13 ft will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Thu. Farther south in the Tehuantepec region, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 8-9 ft will prevail across the area through Tue night. These marine conditions will return again late on Thu as the next cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds may briefly reach minimal gale force Thu night into Fri, with seas building up to 10 or 11 ft. The forecast calls for Gale Conditions Possible. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue night, with seas building to 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected S of it. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama Tue and Tue night as high pressure builds N of area. Long period NW swell will continue to spread across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador over the next several days, but seas will remain under 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb located near 28N128W dominates the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly from 10N-20N W of 125W. Long period NW swells are propagating across most of the forecast waters N of the equator and W of 110W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, except 12 to 15 ft NW of a line from 30N117W TO 21N140W. Another set of NW swell will reach the NW corner of the forecast region on Wed. On this day, seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters N of 03.4S and W of 95W, with seas in the 12-16 ft range affecting the area N of 20N W of 115W. Looking ahead, the next NW swell event is forecast to reach the NW waters by Thu night, with seas up to 18-20 ft. $$ GR