000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040901
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N100W. ITCZ extends
from 07N100W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
along the ITCZ mainly W of 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell continues to propagate across the waters west of the 
Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 10 to 12 ft range off
Baja California Norte, and 8 to 10 ft off Baja California Sur. 
Additional pulses of NW swell will occur through the week, which 
will maintain seas 8 ft or greater west of the Baja area.

Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds 
will prevail across the area through Tue. These conditions will
return again on Fri as the next cold front moves across the Gulf
of Mexico, tighening the pressure gradient across the 
Tehuantepec area. Fresh to strong winds will prevail through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region the next several nights. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the 
region. Slight to moderate wave heights in southwest swell will 
change little over the Central American and equatorial waters 
through today. NW swell will enter the offshore waters the 
middle of the week, bringing a slight increase in seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high center is centered near 28N127W, with a ridge 
stretching southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to 
strong trade winds N of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 120W. The 
ridge will weaken through early this week, which will diminish 
these winds. 

NW swell covers the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater
covering much of the waters west of 105W. Sets of reinforcing 
swell will enter the forecast waters, with each set raising sea 
heights greater than 12 ft. Currently, seas 12 ft or greater 
cover the waters N of 28N between 116W and 118W. These seas will
subside below 12 ft towards the morning. Another set of NW swell
has entered the far NW waters, with seas to 13 ft. This swell 
will increase seas to 12 ft or greater over the waters north of 
20N tonight. Seas will subside below 12 ft through the middle of
the week when yet another set of NW swell will enter the NW 
waters. The continued pulses of NW swell entering the forecast 
waters will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the 
forecast waters west of 100W through the week. 

$$
ERA