000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032051
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N90W to 06N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 07N126W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 125W and 
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell is propagating across the waters west of the Baja
California peninsula, with seas in the 11 to 13 ft range off 
Baja California Norte, and 8 to 11 ft off Baja California Sur. 
Additional pulses of NW swell will occur through the week, which 
will maintain seas 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula.

Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, high pressure has
weakened in the Gulf of Mexico. This has loosened the pressure
gradient over the area, and diminished winds below gale force in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds will continue
through Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region the next several nights. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the 
region. Slight to moderate wave heights in southwest swell will 
change little over the Central American and equatorial waters 
through Mon. NW swell will enter the offshore waters the middle 
of next week, bringing a slight increase in seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1028 mb high center is centered near 29N128W, with a ridge 
stretching southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to 
strong trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. The 
ridge will weaken through early this week, which will diminish 
these winds. 

NW swell covers the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater
covering much of the waters west of 105W. Sets of reinforcing 
swell will enter the forecast waters, with each set raising sea 
heights greater than 12 ft. Currently, seas 12 ft or greater 
cover the waters N of 23N between 116W and 125W. These seas will
subside below 12 ft tonight. Another set of NW swell has entered
the far NW waters, with seas to 13 ft. This swell will increase 
seas to 12 ft or greater over the waters north of 20N by Mon 
night. Seas will subside below 12 ft through the middle of next 
week when yet another set of NW swell will enter the NW waters. 
The continued pulses of NW swell entering the forecast waters 
will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast 
waters west of 105W through the week. 

$$
AL