000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030854
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure continues to
build in the wake of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico, 
tightening the pressure gradient over the area. Latest
scatterometer data depicted gale force winds already occurring
over the Tehuantepec area. These winds are expected to diminish 
below gale force this afternoon. Afterward, fresh to strong gap 
winds will continue across the region through late Tue. Please 
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 06N99W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N99W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell is propagating across the waters west of the Baja
California peninsula, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. 
Additional pulses of NW swell will occur through the week, which
will maintain seas 8 ft or greater west of the Baja area.

Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gap winds to gale 
force are expected through 18Z today as a cold front continues
moving east across the Gulf of Mexico away from the area. These 
gap winds will gradually diminish through the early part of the 
week as the high pressure behind the front weakens and shifts 
eastward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region the next several nights. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the 
region. Slight to moderate wave heights in southwest swell will 
change little over the Central American and equatorial waters 
through Mon. NW swell will enter the offshore waters the middle 
of next week, bringing a slight increase in seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high center is analyzed near 29N131W, with a ridge 
stretching southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to 
strong trade winds N of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 110W. The 
ridge will weaken through early this week, which will diminish 
these winds. 

NW swell covers the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater
covering much of the waters N of 00N and west of 105W. Sets of 
reinforcing swell will enter the forecast waters, with each set 
raising sea heights greater than 12 ft. Currently, seas 12 ft or 
greater cover the waters NW of a line from 30N117W to 11N140W. 
These seas will slowly subside below 12 ft today. Another set of
NW swell will move into the NW waters tonight. This swell will 
increase seas to 12 ft or greater over the waters north of 20N by
Mon night. Seas will subside below 12 ft through the middle of 
next week when yet another set of NW swell will enter the NW 
waters. The continued pulses of NW swell entering the forecast 
waters will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the 
forecast waters west of 105W through the week. 

$$
ERA