000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030230
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jan 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building in the 
wake of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico has tightened the 
pressure gradient over the area. This has strengthened winds 
funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec to gale-force. These 
winds diminish below gale force on Sun afternoon. Afterward, 
fresh to strong gap winds will continue across the region through
Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1012 mb low near 
08N95W to 05N100W. The ITCZ extends from 05N100W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ mainly W 
of 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell is propagating across the waters west of the Baja
California peninsula, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. 
Additional pulses of NW swell will occur through the next week, 
which will maintain seas 8 ft or greater west of the Baja 
peninsula.

Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gap winds to gale 
force are expected tonight from a cold front across the western 
Gulf of Mexico. These gap winds will gradually diminish through 
the early part of next week as the high pressure behind the front
weakens and shifts eastward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region the next several nights. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the 
region. Slight to moderate wave heights in southwest swell will 
change little over the Central American and equatorial waters 
through Mon. NW swell will enter the offshore waters the middle 
of next week, bringing a slight increase in seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high center is analyzed near 29N131W, with a ridge 
stretching southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to 
strong trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. The 
ridge will weaken through early next week, which will diminish 
these winds. 

NW swell covers the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater
covering much of the waters north of 02N and west of 110W. Sets 
of reinforcing swell will enter the forecast waters, with each 
set raising sea heights greater than 12 ft. Currently, seas 12 ft
or greater cover the waters NW of a line from 30N120W to 
11N140W. These seas will slowly subside below 12 ft on Sun. 
Another set of NW swell will move into the NW waters Sun night. 
This swell will increase seas to 12 ft or greater over the waters
north of 20N by Mon night. Seas will subside below 12 ft through
the middle of next week when yet another set of NW swell will 
enter the NW waters. The continued pulses of NW swell entering 
the forecast waters will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over 
much of the forecast waters west of 110W through next week. 

$$
ERA