000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021452 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building in the wake of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient in southern Mexico, and strengthen the winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. Winds will increase to gale force tonight, then diminish below gale force Sun morning. Afterward, fresh to strong gap winds will continue across the region through Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N93W to 06N105W. The ITCZ continues from 06N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 112W and 120W, and from 04N to 07N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW swell is propagating across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Additional pulses of NW swell will occur through early next week, which will maintain seas 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula through the middle of next week. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gap winds to gale force are expected tonight from a cold front across the western Gulf of Mexico. These gap winds will gradually diminish through the early part of next week as the high pressure behind the front weakens and shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. The next round of fresh to strong northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region is possible through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate wave heights in southwest swell will change little over the Central American and equatorial waters through Mon. NW swell will enter the offshore waters Tue, bringing a slight increase in seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high center is analyzed near 30N131W, with a ridge stretching southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. The ridge will weaken through early next week, which will diminish the winds. NW swell covers the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north or 02N and west of 110W. Sets of reinforcing swell will enter the forecast waters, with each set raising sea heights greater than 12 ft. Currently, seas 12 ft or greater cover the waters NW of a line from 30N125W to 12N140W. These seas will slowly subside below 12 ft on Sun. Another set of NW swell will move into the NW waters Sun night. This swell will increase seas to 12 ft or greater over the waters north of 20N by Mon night. Yet another set of NW swell will enter the NW waters on Wed. The continued pulses of NW swell entering the forecast waters will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters west of 110W through at least the middle of next week. $$ AL