000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jan 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building in the wake of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient in southern Mexico, and strengthen the winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. Winds will increase to gale force tonight, then diminish below gale force Sun morning. Afterward, fresh to strong gap winds will continue across the region through Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to low pres near 12N94W to low pres near 08N95W to 06N100W to 06N105W. The ITCZ continues from 06N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm of a line from 10N114W to 07N122W, and from 04N to 07N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW swell is propagating across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are 10 to 11 ft off Baja California Norte. Additional pulses of NW swell will occur through early next week, which will maintain seas 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula through the middle of next week. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gap winds to gale force are expected tonight from a cold front across the western Gulf of Mexico. These gap winds will gradually diminish through the early part of next week as the high pressure behind the front weakens and shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. The next round of fresh to strong northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region is possible through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate wave heights in southwest swell will change little over the Central American and equatorial waters through Mon. NW swell will enter the offshore waters Tue, bringing a slight increase in seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1028 mb high center is analyzed near 30N130W, with a ridge stretching southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Seas over this area are in the 9 to 11 ft range in a mix of northeast wind waves and long-period northwest swell. The ridge will weaken through early next week, allowing the northeast trades to diminish. Large NW swell is entering the northwest part of the forecast area, with seas to 16 ft. This swell will spread seas 12 ft or greater over the waters west of a line from 30N117W to 10N140W later today. These seas will slowly subside below 12 ft on Sun, and another set of NW swell moves into the NW waters Sun night. This swell will increase seas to 12 ft or greater over the waters north of 20N by Mon night. Yet another set of NW swell will enter the NW waters on Wed. The continued pulses of NW swell entering the forecast waters will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters west of 110W through at least the middle of next week. $$ Mundell