000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012040 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A stalled front extends across the Gulf of Mexico. A reinforcing push will move the front across the Bay of Campeche Sat, with high pressure building in the wake of the front. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the area, and strengthen winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat afternoon. These winds will increase to gale force Sat night before diminishing below gale force Sun morning. After winds diminish below gale force, fresh to strong gap winds will continue across the region several days afterward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to low pres near 11N93W to 06N99W to 06N105W. The ITCZ continues from 06N105W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW swell is propagating across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are peaking near 12 ft off Baja California Norte. Additional pulses of NW swell will occur through early next week, which will maintain seas 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula through the middle of next week. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gap winds to gale force are expected Sat night as a cold front sweeps across the western Gulf of Mexico. These gap winds will gradually diminish through the early part of next week as the high pressure behind the front weakens and shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. The next round of fresh to strong northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region is possible Sat and Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate wave heights due to a southwest swell will change little over the Central American and equatorial waters through Mon. NW swell will enter the offshore waters Tue, bringing a slight increase in seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb high center is analyzed near 29N135W, with a ridge stretching southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Seas over this area are in the 9-13=2 ft range in a mix of northeast wind waves and long-period northwest swell. The ridge will weaken through early next week, allowing the northeast trades to diminish. Large NW swell prevails across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater over much of the waters west of 110W. A set of reinforcing NW swell has moved into the NW waters. This swell will spread seas 12 ft or greater over the waters west of a line from 30N117W to 10N140W by Sat. These seas will slowly subside below 12 ft Sun before another set of NW swell moves into the NW waters Sun night. This swell will increase seas to 12 ft or greater over the waters north of 20N by Mon night. As these seas slowly subside through the middle of next week, yet another set of NW swell will enter the NW waters next Wed. The continued sets of NW swell entering the forecast waters will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters west of 110W through at least the middle of next week. $$ AL