000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010917 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Sat will increase to minimal gale-force Sat night as high pressure, associated with a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico, builds into southern Mexico. This gale-force gap wind event is expected to last only a few hours into Sun morning, but the fresh to strong gap winds will continue across the region several days afterward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N86W to 11N92W to 06N100W to 06N110W. The ITCZ continues from 06N110W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 91W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 126W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW winds accompanied by NW swell to 14 ft in the waters of Baja California Norte will diminish today, but the NW swell will persist into early next week. More large NW swell will reach Guadalupe Island by Mon night. These successive groups of reinforcing NW swell will maintain combined seas in excess of 8 ft across the open offshore waters of Mexico west of 110W through the middle of next week. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gap winds to gale force are expected Sat night as a cold front sweeps across the western Gulf of Mexico. These gap winds will gradually diminish through the early part of next week as the high pressure behind the front weakens and shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. The next round of fresh to strong northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region is possible Sat and Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate wave heights due to a southwest swell will change little over the Central American and equatorial waters through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high center is analyzed near 31N132W, with a ridge stretching southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 120W. Seas over this area are in the 9-11 ft range in a mix of northeast wind waves and long-period northwest swell. The ridge will weaken through tonight and shift east-southeast, ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing the northeast trades to diminish. Maximum wave heights will be about 10 to 11 ft, but a large area wave heights of 8 ft or greater will remain west of 110W and north of 05N through early next week. The approaching front will stall just to the northwest of the discussion area, but an accompanying set of reinforcing northwest swell with wave heights to 12-17 ft will cover most of the northwest half of the forecast waters Sat night through Mon. $$ Mundell