000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N86W to 11N92W to 06N100W to 07N109W. The ITCZ continues from 07N109W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 14N between 91W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 129W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW winds accompanied by NW swell to 15 ft in the waters of Baja California Norte will diminish overnight, but the NW swell will persist into early next week. More large NW swell will reach Guadalupe Island by Mon night. These successive groups of reinforcing NW swell will maintain combined seas in excess of 8 ft across the open offshore waters of Mexico west of 110W through the middle of next week. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gap winds to gale force are possible Sat night as a cold front sweeps across the western Gulf of Mexico. These gap winds will gradually diminish through the early part of next week as the high pressure behind the front weakens and shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. The next round of fresh to strong northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region is possible Sat and Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate wave heights due to a southwest swell will change little over the Central American and equatorial waters through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high center is analyzed near 32N132W, with a ridge stretching southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 120W. Seas over this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of northeast wind waves and long-period northwest swell. The ridge will weaken through Fri night while it shifts east- southeastward ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing the northeast trades to diminish. Maximum wave heights will be about 10 to 12 ft, and wave heights of 8 ft or greater will remain west of 110W and north of 05N through early next week. The front will stall just to the northwest of the discussion area, but an accompanying set of reinforcing northwest swell with wave heights to 15-17 ft will cover the waters northwest of a line from Baja California Norte to 12N140W Sat night through early next week. $$ Mundell