672 AXPZ20 KNHC 311443 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Dec 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 10N85W to 06N109W. The ITCZ continues from 06N109W to 07N135W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 80W and 90W, and from 06N to 09N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW winds accompanied by reinforcing NW swell to 13 ft will reach the waters of Baja California Norte through late today. These winds will diminish through tonight, but the NW swell will persist into early next week. Another round of large NW swell will reach Guadalupe Island by Mon night. These successive groups of reinforcing NW swell will maintain combined seas in excess of 8 ft across the open offshore waters of Mexico west of 110W through the early part of the week. Farther south, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the next round of gap winds to gale force may start late Sat, as a cold front sweeps across the western Gulf of Mexico. These gap wind pulses will gradually diminish through the early part of next week as the high pressure behind the front weakens and shifts east. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. The next round of fresh to fresh gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo region is possible by late Sat into early Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate wave heights due to a southwest swell will change little over the Central American and equatorial waters through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1030 mb high center is analyzed just north of the area at 32N133W, with a ridge stretching southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 120W. Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of northeast wind waves with long- period northwest swell. The ridge will weaken through Fri night while it shifts east- southeastward ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing for northeast trades to diminish back to moderate to fresh speeds. Maximum wave heights will be about 10 to 12 ft, and wave heights of 8 ft or greater will remain west of 110W and north of 05N through early next week. The front will stall just to the northwest of the discussion area, but an accompanying set of reinforcing northwest swell with wave heights 12 ft or greater will cover the waters northwest of a line from Baja California Norte to 12N140W Sat night through early next week. $$ AL