000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292142 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Dec 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 08N87W to 04N101W. The ITCZ continues from 04N101W to 07N117W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 05N to 09N between 82W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 06N to 11N between 122W to 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The latest scatterometer pass from 1530 UTC continues to show northerly gap winds winds up to 25 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are expected to diminish later today as high pressure north of the area weakens. Seas up to 9 ft will also quickly subside later today. Expect gentle to moderate winds for the rest of the week in this area. By Sat, a cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico. This will likely cause a gale-force event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Sat night through Sun. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted S of 27N. In the northern Gulf, moderate to fresh winds are also noted. By tonight, strong NW winds will occur in most of the Gulf of California and continue through Thu as high pressure builds in the wake of a weakened front. Seas are likely to reach 5-7 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 6-8 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California. Another cold front will approach the area by Fri, which will increase the winds in the area to 20 kt. These winds are expected to subside by Sat. The large swell off Guadalupe Island and Baja California Norte will gradually subside by tonight. The next rounds of large swell is expected to arrive by Thu night and continue into Fri, and then Sat night into Sun. Meanwhile, swell in excess of 8 ft will spread southward to the Revillagigedo Islands by early Wed and near Cabo Corrientes by early Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight as high pressure remains in place over the W Caribbean. Winds will then diminish as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. Peak seas that reached 8 ft this morning are subsiding and will continue to be below 8 ft through the week. The next round of fresh to strong gap winds is possible by late Sat into early Sun. Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent through at least Sat night over the Central American and equatorial waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends from a 1032 mb high at 33N135W southeastward toward Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ to the south are producing NE to E fresh to strong trades with the strongest winds from 15N to 20N west of 130W. The trades will increase and become more extensive through Wed night as the ridge strengthens. Seas will peak at 10-12 ft due to NW swell and NE wind waves. Meanwhile NW swell in excess of 8 ft persists across the region north of 05N and west of 110W. The ridge will weaken Thu and shift east ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing the NE trades to diminish back to moderate to fresh conditions. Maximum wave heights will subside to less than 12 ft, but the extent of the NW swell of 8 ft or greater will persist through Fri. While another cold front will stall near 30N140W by Thu night, reinforcing NW swell will accompany the front with wave heights 12 ft or greater covering the waters northwest of a line from Baja California Norte to 12N140W by Sat night into early Sun. $$ AReinhart