000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282114
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Dec 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Colombia-Panama border
at 08N78W to 08N85W to 05N102W. The ITCZ continues from 05N102W 
to 08N118W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 09N between 122W to 126W and from 06N to 08N
between 132N to 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Strong to near-gale N gap winds pulsing into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish on Tue as high pressure north of the 
area weakens. Seas are peaking at 10 to 12 ft. The next gap wind
event should return by late Sat as a cold front moves through 
the Gulf of Mexico. This likely will be a gale-force event on
late Sat and Sun.

Farther north, a cold front extends from the Arizona-Mexico
border near 32N112W, across the N Gulf of California, to 27N120W. 
Scatterometer passes this morning indicated strong SW winds ahead
of the cold front in the N Gulf of California and only moderate 
N winds behind the front. Peak seas in the N Gulf of California 
are around 5-7 ft. Strong NW winds are also possible over the 
Gulf of California from Tue night through Wed night as the cold 
front sweeps southward across the area. Peak seas are likely to 
reach 5-7 ft in the N Gulf of California and 6-8 ft in the 
central and S Gulf of California.

Very large NW swell are moving into the waters west of Baja 
California today, will peak near 15 ft Tue and early Wed, and 
then gradually diminish through Thu. An altimeter pass indicated 
seas of 8-10 ft just west of the Baja California peninsula at 
1330 UTC today. On Fri and Sat another large NW swell event of 
around 12 ft seas should again impact the waters west of Baja 
California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through Tue as high pressure remains in place 
over the W Caribbean. Peak seas are reaching 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, 
winds and seas will be quiescent through at least Sat night over 
the Central American and equatorial waters. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends from a 1029 mb high at 31N140W east-southeastward
to 17N105W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ
to the south are producing NE to E fresh to strong trades. The 
strong NE trades are occurring from 06N to 11N west of 135W, as 
observed by scatterometer passes this morning. The trades will 
increase and become more extensive through Wed night as the ridge
strengthens. Seas will peak at 10-12 ft due to NW swell and NE 
wind waves. On Thu through Sat the NE trades will relax back to 
moderate to fresh conditions. 

The next cold front should reach the N border Thu night, but 
winds associated with it should reach only strong breeze or
weaker.

Very large NW swell up to 15 ft are continuing across the 30N 
border east of 132W today and Tuesday before diminishing through 
Thu. An altimeter pass along the 140W border indicated seas of
10-12 ft from 15N to 30N.  Another very large NW swell event 
peaking around 18 ft may reach the NW corner of our waters 
beginning on Fri. 

$$
Landsea