000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Dec 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 06N91W to 06N106W. The ITCZ continues from 06N106W to 07N121W to 08N138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 113W to 121W and from 07N to 12N between 124W to 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehunatepec: The latest scatterometer pass shows fresh northerly winds. These winds are expected to pulse to strong at night through Tuesday in response to the high pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure in the deep tropics. By Wednesday, winds will be gentle to moderate. Strong northerly winds will return by Thurs night as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The next potential for gales could occur late in the week. Gulf of California: Moderate NW winds and seas 2 to 4 ft continue across the Gulf of California. Strong, highly localized W gap winds can be expected along 30N ahead of a cold front tonight into early Mon morning and will continue into Tue. By Wed, fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected behind a cold front with seas building to 7 ft. On Thu, winds and seas will diminish. Fresh N winds could return to the northern Gulf of California by Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte, with mainly gentle to moderate winds across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Large NW swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California tonight through Mon with seas building to 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds will accompany a cold front moving through the area Mon into Tue, with reinforcing NW swell building seas to 13 ft off Baja California Norte through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region through Tue as high pressure remains in place over the western Caribbean. Winds may briefly reach near gale force close to the coast during the early mornings due to enhanced drainage flow. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough, except occasionally fresh near the Gulf of Panama. Long-period SW swell persist throughout the offshore waters of Central America through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging north of 20N dominates the waters north of 20N. Farther south into the deep tropics, a surface trough persists along the ITCZ between 04N to 12N at 139W/140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting fresh winds north of the trough. The latest scatterometer pass shows moderate to fresh winds continue to prevail north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 110W. NW swell is propagating across the western waters, with seas 8 ft or greater west of 123W and north of 07N. An altimeter pass from 12Z indicated seas peaking near 14 ft north of 25N and west of 125W. A new cold front approaching the area from the north central Pacific will move eastward across the waters north of 25N through Tue. This front will usher in a new set of NW swell, which will raise sea heights above 12 ft over the waters north of 25N and east of 135W today through Tue, diminishing into mid week. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support persistent fresh trades over the tropical waters from roughly 10N to 20N west of 120W today through mid week, with seas 8 to 11 ft in a mix of wind waves and NW swell. $$ AReinhart