000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262042 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Dec 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N89W to 06N110W. The ITCZ extends from 06N110W to 09N130W. It resumes from 09N133W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 120W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehunatepec: High pressure that was north of the area supporting gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec has weakened and shifted over the SE United States. This has loosened the pressure gradient across the area, and winds have diminished below gale force. Near gale force winds that now prevail across the Tehuantepec area will diminish slightly this evening. Fresh to strong winds will then prevail through Wednesday. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event will be possible the end of next week. Gulf of California: Moderate NW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of California. Strong NW winds may again impact the northern Gulf of California Mon night into Tue as a cold front moves into the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte, with mainly gentle to moderate winds across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Large NW swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California tonight through Sun night with seas building to 8-11 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds will accompany a cold front moving through the area Mon into Tue, with reinforcing NW swell building seas to 12 ft off Baja California Norte through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of Fonseca have diminished to 20 kt or less. Fresh to strong NE-E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region the next several days as high pressure remains in place over the western Caribbean. Winds may briefly reach near gale force close to the coast during the early mornings due to enhanced drainage flow. Swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event continues to affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, with seas up to 10 ft. Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough, except occasionally fresh near the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure prevails across the northern waters anchored by high pressure of 1033 mb centered near 31N150W. A surface trough is located near 10N131W to 05N133W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 122W. NW swell is propagating across the western waters, with seas 8 ft or greater west of 125W and north of 07N. Recent altimeter pass indicates seas peaking near 13-14 ft N of 25N and west of 130W. These large seas greater than 12 ft will slowly subside tonight. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 25N late Sun. This front will usher in a new set of NW swell, which will raise sea heights above 12 ft over the waters N of 25N E of 135W Sun through Tue. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support persistent fresh trades over the tropical waters from roughly 10N to 20N west of 120W Sun through Tue, with seas 8 to 11 ft in a mix of wind waves and NW swell. $$ AL