000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260929
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer
satellite pass confirmed strong northerly gales persist into the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is due to cold, dense air entering the
area from the southwest Gulf of Mexico across the isthmus of 
Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be as high as 18 ft, and a 
plume of seas in excess of 8 ft extend well to the south and 
southwest of the Tehuantepec region. Sustained gale force winds 
were reported at Salina Cruz Mexico, supporting the case for 
gales offshore. Winds and seas will diminish through today as 
the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. 
Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec should take necessary action to avoid hazardous 
marine conditions over the affected waters. Please read the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event will be possible
the end of next week. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 06N90W to
06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 06N105W to 09N125W, and from 
07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 125W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features for details about the latest Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event.

Moderate to fresh winds will prevail off the coast of Baja 
California Norte, with mainly gentle to moderate winds prevailing
across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Large NW 
swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California 
tonight through Sun night with seas building to 8-11 ft. Looking 
ahead, fresh to strong NW winds will accompany a cold front 
moving through the area Mon into Tue, with reinforcing NW swell 
building seas to 12 ft off Baja California Norte through mid week.

Strong high pressure over the Great Basin had been supporting
strong winds and higher than normal seas across the Gulf of
California. Winds and seas are diminishing this morning as the 
high pressure weakens and shifts east. Moderate NW winds and 2 
to 4 ft seas are expected across the Gulf by this afternoon. 
Looking ahead, strong NW winds may again impact the northern Gulf
of California Mon night into Tue as a cold front moves into the 
region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite data confirms fresh to strong gap
winds are active in both the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of
Fonseca. This is due to mainly to strong high pressure building 
north of the area, strengthening the gradient. At a miminum, 
fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse across the Papagayo region 
the next several days as high pressure remains in place over the 
western Caribbean. Winds may briefly reach near gale force close
to the coast during the early mornings due to enhanced drainage
flow. Swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event continues to affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador, with seas up to 11 ft, falling below 8 ft tonight. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side 
of the monsoon trough, except occasionally fresh near the Gulf of
Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front from 30N127W to 24N140W will weaken as it continues
to move eastward to the north of 20N through late Sun. The front
has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas 8 ft or greater west
of 125W and north of 07N. Seas will reach as high as 13-14 ft in
the waters north of 25N and west of 125W through tonight. This 
front will likely dissipate through Sun, but another front will 
move eastward across the waters north of 25N early next week. 
High pressure building in the wake of this front will support 
persistent fresh trades over the tropical waters from roughly 10N
to 20N west of 120W Sun through Tue, with seas 8 to 11 ft in a 
mix of wind waves and NW swell.

$$
Christensen