000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252041 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Dec 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the eastern slopes of Mexico has weakened enough to loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below storm force. Recent ASCAT pass shows that strong gale force winds continue in the Tehuantepec region. Though there were no recent altimeter passes over the area, seas are likely still peaking near 20-22 ft. The high pressure area will weaken and shift eastward which will further diminish winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds diminishing below gale force Sat. A large plume of seas of 8 ft or greater will extend well SW-W of the Tehuantepec region from this event. Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec should take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event will be possible the end of next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 06N97W. The ITCZ extends from 06N97W to 09N122W. It resumes from 07N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 90W, and from 05N to 10N between 117W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for details about the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Gulf of California: The combination of high pressure north of the area in the Great Basin of the United States and a trough near the Gulf of California is resulting in fresh to strong NW winds along the length of the Gulf. These winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish through tonight as the area of high pressure weakens and shift east, with moderate NW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas expected across the Gulf by Sat afternoon. Looking ahead, strong NW winds may again impact the northern Gulf of California Mon night into Tue as a cold front moves into the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte, with mainly gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Large NW swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California Sat night through Sun night with seas building to 8-11 ft. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW winds will accompany a cold front moving through the area Mon into Tue, with reinforcing NW swell building seas to 12 ft off Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse across the Papagayo region the next several days as high pressure remains in place over the western Caribbean. Swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event continues to affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, with seas up to 15-20 ft. Seas will gradually to subside tonight and Sat, falling below 8 ft Sat night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough, except occasionally fresh near the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N131W to 26N140W. The front will weaken as it continues to move eastward to the north of 20N through late Sun. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas 8 ft or greater west of a line from 30N128W to 07N136W. This swell will continue to spread seas 8 ft or greater across the waters west of 125W and north of 07N by early Sat. Seas will reach as high as 13-14 ft in the waters north of 25N and west of 125W. This front will likely dissipate through Sun, but another front will move eastward across the waters north of 25N early next week. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support persistent fresh trades over the tropical waters from roughly 10N to 20N west of 120W Sun through Tue, with seas 8 to 11 ft in a mix of wind waves and NW swell. $$ AL