000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251502 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Dec 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehunatepec Storm Warning: 1030 mb high pressure is centered over eastern Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough continues to support storm force winds this morning. Winds will diminish to strong gales by this afternoon as the high pressure shifts eastward. Gales will then persist into early Sat before diminishing below gale force. A large plume of seas of 8 ft or greater will extend well SW-W of the Tehuantepec region from this event. Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec should take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to 07N122W. It resumes from 06N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 101W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for details about an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec storm force gap wind event. Gulf of California: The combination of high pressure north of the area in the Great Basin of the United States, high pressure over north central Mexico and a trough near the Gulf of California is resulting in strong NW winds along the length of the Gulf. These winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish through tonight as the areas of high pressure weaken and shift east, with moderate NW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas expected across the Gulf by Sat afternoon. Looking ahead, strong NW winds may again impact the northern Gulf of California Mon night into Tue as a cold front moves into the region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California through today. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro today as the pressure gradient tightens between a ridge west of the region and a trough over the Gulf of California. Large NW swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California Sat night through Sun night with seas building to 8-11 ft. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW winds will accompany a cold front moving through the area Mon into Tue, with reinforcing NW swell allowing seas to 12 ft off Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse across the Papagayo region the next several days as high pressure remains in place over the western Caribbean. Swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sat. Seas will build up to 15-20 ft through late today. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough, except occasionally fresh near the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface trough is along and north of the ITCZ near 126W. The gradient between this feature and high pressure north of the area was supporting fresh to strong trade winds, and seas around 9 ft in the vicinity of the trough. Farther north, a cold front extends from 30N134W to 26N140W. The front will weaken as it continues to move eastward to the north of 20N through late Sun. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell. This swell will spread seas 8 ft or greater across the waters west of 125W and north of 08N by early Sat. Seas may reach as high as 13 ft in the waters north of 25N and west of 130W. This front will likely dissipate through Sun, but another front will move eastward across the waters north of 25N early next week. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support persistent fresh trades over the tropical waters from roughly 10N to 20N west of 120W Sun through Tue, with seas 8 to 11 ft in a mix of wind waves and NW swell. $$ AL