000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242030
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Dec 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehunatepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front moving 
across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Bay of Campeche this
afternoon. Winds will rapidly increase across the Tehuantepec
region, reaching storm force by this evening. Winds will remain
at storm force through early Fri before diminishing to strong
gale force Fri afternoon. Gale conditions are then forecast to 
persist for the rest of Fri into early Sat before diminishing. 
Large seas of 20-24 ft are possible by early Fri while a large 
plume of seas of 8 ft or greater will extend well SW-W of the 
Tehuantepec region from this event. Marine interests transiting 
across or in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be 
aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take necessary action 
to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. 
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N103W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N103W to 08N121W. It resumes from 07N124W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 03N to 08N E of 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 113W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features for details about an upcoming Gulf of 
Tehuantepec storm force gap wind event.

Gulf of California: High pressure prevails over the Great Basin 
of United States. Latest ASCAT pass indicates that this area of
high pressure is supporting fresh to near gale winds, and seas 
of 8-9 ft, over the Gulf of California. Winds will diminish by 
late Sat as the area of high pressure weakens and shifts east. 
Looking ahead, strong NW winds may again impact the northern Gulf
of California by Mon night as a cold front moves into the 
region.

Mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail across the 
offshore waters of Baja California through Fri. Winds will
increase to moderate to fresh mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro 
toward the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient tightens 
between a ridge west of the region and a trough over the Gulf of
California. Large NW swell will propagate into the waters W of 
Baja California Sat night through Sun night with seas building to
8-12 ft. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW winds will accompany 
a cold front moving through the area Mon into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse across the Papagayo region
the next several days as high pressure remains in place over the
W Caribbean. Swell generated during a strong upcoming Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to affect the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late tonight through Sat. 
Seas will build up to 14-19 ft, especially tonight and Fri. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side 
of the monsoon trough, except occasionally fresh near the Gulf of
Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of the ITCZ to 20N and 
west of 125W. A broad surface trough is along and north of the 
ITCZ near 123W, with locally strong winds. Seas are 6 to 9 ft 
across the trade wind belt, highest near the strongest winds. 

A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 20N 
by tonight. Fresh to strong SW winds will prevail ahead of the 
front through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and very 
rough seas will follow the front. By Fri night, the front is 
forecast to extend from 30N126W to 24N140W, then will gradually 
weaken and dissipate through the weekend. A reinforcing front may
clip the waters north of 25N and east of 130W by the end of the 
weekend. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 14 ft behind the 
first front along 30N by Fri night into early Sat. Looking ahead,
strong high pressure following this reinforcing front may 
support fresh to strong NE to E winds from 20N to 25N west of 
135W Sun and Mon, with seas up to 12 ft in a mix of wind waves 
and longer period NW swell.

$$
AL