000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Dec 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: High pressure building along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico on Sun will induce the next round of gale-force winds over the Tehuantepec region Sun night through Tue. Seas will peak around 12-13 ft with this event Sun night into Mon. Looking ahead, marine guidance suggests a very strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec area by Thu. Storm conditions and very rough seas are possible by Thu night. Marine interest should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event to avoid hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N80W to 09N85W to 06N98W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N98W to 08N120W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 123W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 112W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin region of U.S. currently supports fresh to strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California, particularly from 25N to 27N W of 110W. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds. Fresh to strong NW-N winds will persist across most of the Gulf through Sun evening. Seas will remain under 8 ft. Similar weather conditions are expected Wed night and Thu, but mainly over the central waters, with building seas of 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California. Fresh northerly winds are expected within about 60 nm offshore Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes tonight and Sun. Long period NW swell impacting the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro will slowly subside through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the next several days as high pressure remains in place over the W Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. No significant swell events are forecast through early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas may affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Thu night into Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1032 mb located north of the area near 35N130W dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ is causing fresh to locally strong NE to E trades, mainly from 14N to 21N W of 130W, and from 09N to 16N between 120W and 130W based on most recent satellite-derived wind data. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range. The high pressure will weaken ahead of a cold front reaching 30N140W by Mon evening. This will allow the trades to weaken substantially Sun through Tue. A weak trough may develop over the west-central waters by mid-week increasing trades again slightly. Additional pulses of long period NW swell will reach the NW corner of the forecast area by late Sun. $$ GR