000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181909
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico is producing gale-force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec into tonight. Winds are expected to diminish in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec below gale force overnight. Please read the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W TO 07N94W. ITCZ begins 
07N94W and extends to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is located from 07N TO 12N, west of 
133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features for details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Gale Warning.

While the gale over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region should end 
late tonight, the gap winds will continue with fresh to strong N 
winds into Mon. A new cold front to move across the Gulf of 
Mexico Mon is forecast to force additional N gales over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Mon afternoon through Tue morning. Peak seas 
anticipated with this second round of gales are around 15 ft Mon 
evening and Tue.

Large, long period NW swell west of Baja California will slowly 
subside through Sat night. 

Gulf of California: A dissipating cold front in the northern Gulf
of California will move inland this evening. NW winds will build
up to strong across the Gulf of California Sat afternoon into 
Sun night. Seas should peak around 6-8 ft in the central Gulf of 
California Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across the
Papagayo region into the start of next week as high pressure 
remains in place over the W Caribbean. Seas offshore of Guatemala
and El Salvador will increase to 6-8 ft through tonight from 
swell generated by gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Seas will again increase to 8-10 ft on Tue from new Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gales.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1031 mb high is centered near 37N133W with surface ridging 
extending southeastward to 12N110W. The moderate pressure 
gradient between the high the the ITCZ is causing fresh E to NE 
trades. The high will strengthen some through Sat, increasing the
trades to a large area of fresh to strong. Seas will peak around
8-10 ft tonight and Sat due to combined wind waves and some NW 
swell. A cold front impinging on the high will allow the trades 
to weaken substantially Sun through at least Tue. No new large 
long- period swell is expected over forecast waters for the next 
several days.

$$
KONARIK