000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Dec 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event over the Tehuantepec region is expected Mon afternoon through Tue morning. Winds are forecast to briefly reach gale force by Mon afternoon and Mon night, with seas up to 12 ft. Building high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support this event. Looking ahead, minimal gale conditions and building seas to 11 or 12 ft are expected again in the Tehuantepec area Wed night through Thu night as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 05N80W to 06N95W to 06N107W. The ITCZ continues from 06N107W to 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near 04N80W, from 06N to 07N between 91W and 93W, from 08N to 10N between 126W and 130W. Similar convection can be found from 10N to 14N between 118W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over the Gulf of Baja California supports fresh to locally strong N-NE winds from 22N to 27N between 114W and 121W. These winds are forecast to diminish early on Mon, then increase again to 20-25 kt across the waters N of 28N E of 120W by Mon evening as the pressure gradient tighten again across the offshore waters of northern Baja California. A new set of long period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Mon building seas to 8-13 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Mon evening. Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin region of U.S. will continue to support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of California through Mon morning with seas to 8 ft across the central waters. In addition, fresh to locally strong winds are funneling through the Baja California passes into the offshore waters of Baja California. Expect these winds to also diminish by Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region over the next several days with seas of 4-6 ft. Winds are expected to increase to fresh to strong on Fri as high pressure builds over the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with sea heights of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-8 ft in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will gradually subside to 4-6 ft by Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb located near 34N136W extends a ridge SE across the northern forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough is supporting a large area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 12N to 17N between 120W and 135W, and elsewhere from 15N to 21N W of 130W. Scatterometer data confirmed the latter winds. These winds winds will persist over the next 48 hours as high pressure remains in place. A new set of long period NW swell is propagating over the NW corner of the forecast area. This swell event will continue to spread SE, covering most of the area N of 10N W of 115W by Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 8-13 ft, with the highest seas N of 28N between 117W and 125W. Additional pulses of NW swell will reach 30N140W on Tue. $$ GR