000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122203
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near
07N73W to 05N100W to 09N121W. The ITCZ continues from 09N121W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N 
to 05N E of 84W, and along the boundary between 98W to 113W. 
Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the ITCZ from
06N to 10N between 126W to 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A deep layer trough extends southwestward from north central 
Mexico, across Baja California Sur and Socorro Island to near 
17N115W. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas are 6
to 7 ft west of Baja California Norte. This is due to northerly 
swell gradually subsiding as it moves further southeast. Gentle 
breezes and modest seas are noted from scatterometer and altimeter
data across the Gulf of California and west of the remainder of 
the Mexican coast.

The NW swell off Baja California will gradually subside through 
Sun, but fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected off Baja 
California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California tonight 
into Sun as high pressure builds north of the area. Another round
of large northwest swell and building seas is likely for the waters
west of Baja California Mon through Tue. Farther south, strong 
gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night as a 
cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Stronger gap 
winds to gale force are possible Wed night. Large NW swell is 
likely for the waters west of Baja California Mon through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong offshore gap winds are expected 
across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight into Sunday. Seas downwind 
of the Papagayo region are below 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail elsewhere the next several days, with seas in the 5 
to 8 ft range in primarily SW swell, subsiding to 4-6 ft by Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N127W. A ridge extends 
SW from the high to northeast of Hawaii. The gradient between 
higher pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh trade 
winds roughly from 08N to 22N, west of 115W. These winds will 
remain in place for the next several days as high pressure 
persists north of the area.

Long period NW swell covers much of the waters, with seas
gradually subsiding to 8 ft or less through Sun. Reinforcing 
northwest swell, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, will push southward 
into the waters north of 20N Sun night into Tue, related in part
to a cold front expected to approach the area from the northwest
by Sun, but then stall and lift north through early next week.

$$
Torres