000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Dec 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W to 07N101W. The ITCZ continues from 07N101W to 10N110W, then resumes from 12N114W to 11N124W to 09N131W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from 16N106W to 11N123W, and from 07N to 10N west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough extends southwestward from north central Mexico, across Baja California Sur and Socorro Island to near 20N125W. An earlier altimeter satellite pass confirmed seas are up to at least 8 ft off Baja California Norte, near Guadalupe Island. This is due to northerly swell moving into the region. Gentle breezes and modest seas are noted across the Gulf of California and west of the remainder of the Mexican coast. The NW swell off Baja California will gradually subside through Sun, but fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected off Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California on Sun as high pressure builds north of the area. Another round of large northwest swell is likely for the waters west of Baja California Mon through Tue. Farther south, gap winds to gale force are possible Mon and Mon night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will persist through Sat. Seas downwind of the Papagayo region are below 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere the next several days, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in primarily SW swell, subsiding to 4-6 ft by Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N130W. A ridge extends SW from the high to northeast of Hawaii. The gradient between higher pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh trade winds roughly from 08N to 25N, west of 120W. These winds will remain in place for the next several days as high pressure persists north of the area. Long period NW swell covers much of the waters, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Sea heights will slowly subside through Sat. Reinforcing northwesterly swell, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, will push southward into the waters north of 20N Sun night into Tue, related in part to a cold front expected to approach the area from the northwest by Sun, but then stall and lift north through early next week. $$ Mundell