000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112040 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Dec 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N78W to 04N80W to 10N115W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 06N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N, between 95W and 98W, and within 12N123W to 10N110W to 12N112W to 12N123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough reaches from north central Mexico, southwestward across Baja California Sur and Socorro Island to near 20N125W. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing near Socorro Island and the entrance to the Gulf of California, but this activity is diminishing. An earlier altimeter satellite pass confirmed seas are up to at least 8 ft off Baja California Norte, near Guadalupe Island. This is due to northerly swell moving into the region. Another altimeter satellite pass indicated sea to 8 ft in the waters beyond 120 nm off the coast from Jalisco to Guerrero, in what is likely a mix of NW and SW swell. Gentle breezes and modest seas are noted across the Gulf of California. Gap winds have ceased through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The NW swell off Baja California will gradually subside through Sun, but fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected off Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California on Sun between high pressure builds north of the area. Another round of large northwest swell is likely for the waters west of Baja California Mon through Tue. Farther south, gap winds to gale force are possible Mon and Mon night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will persist through late Sat. Seas to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo region will subside below 8 ft tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere the next several days, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in primarily SW swell, subsiding to 4-6 ft by Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 32N131W. A ridge extends SW from the high to northeast of Hawaii. The gradient between higher pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and within the monsoon trough, is supporting a large area of fresh trade winds roughly from 08N to 25N, west of 120W. These winds will remain in place for the next several days as high pressure persists north of the area. Long period NW swell covers much of the waters, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Sea heights will slowly subside through Sat. Reinforcing northwesterly swell, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, will push southward into the waters north of 20N Sun night into Tue, related in part to a cold front expected to approach the area from the northwest by Sun, but then stall and lift north through early next week. $$ Christensen