000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Dec 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N95W to 10N115W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N, east of 80W, from 10N to 15N between 112W and 120W, and from 06N to 10N between 128W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough reaches from north central Mexico, southwestward across Baja California Sur and Socorro Island to near 20N125W. A few showers linger along this trough between Socorro Island and the entrance to the Gulf of California, but this activity is diminishing. A recent altimeter satellite pass confirms seas are up to at least 8 ft off Baja California Norte, near Guadalupe Island. This is due to northerly swell moving into the region. Another recent altimeter satellite pass indicates sea to 8 ft in the waters beyond 120 nm off the coast from Jalisco to Guerrero, in what is likely a mix of NW and SW swell. Gentle breezes and modest seas are noted across the Gulf of California. Gap winds have ceased through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The NW swell off Baja California will gradually subside through Sun, but fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected off Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California on Sun between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over north central Mexico. Another round of large northwest swell is likely for the waters west of Baja California Mon through Tue. Farther south, gap winds to gale force are possible Mon and Mon night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish through late morning. Seas to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo region will subside below 8 ft tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere the next several days, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range subsiding to 4-6 ft by Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 32N132W. A ridge extends SW from the high to northeast of Hawaii. The gradient between higher pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and within the monsoon trough, is supporting a large area of fresh trade winds roughly from 08N to 22N, west of 120W. These winds will remain in place for the next several days as high pressure persists north of the area. Long period NW swell covers much of the waters, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Sea heights will slowly subside through Sat. Reinforcing northwesterly swell, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, will push southward into the waters north of 20N Sun night into Tue, related in part to a cold front expected to approach the area from the northwest by Sun, but then stall and lift north through early next week. $$ Christensen