000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110901
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N90W to 06N101W to a
1013 mb low pressure near 10N109W to 10N117W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N117W to 09N126W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 94W 
and 136W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate W to NW winds west of
Mexico including the Baja peninsula. A large scale NW swell event
is winding down across the open waters off Mexico. Seas greater 
10 ft will prevail over the forecast waters today, then gradually
subside through Sun.

A new round of NW swell with wave heights of 8-10 ft will affect
the waters west of Baja California Norte this weekend, followed
by a significant push of NW swell early next week, with seas of 
10-14 ft possible off Baja California Norte late Mon night.

Little change in winds is expected through Sat. Strong NW to N 
winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California on Sun as 
high pressure builds north of the area. Gap winds to gale force 
are possible Mon and Mon night in Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold 
front moves into the western Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
will diminish this morning. Seas to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo
region will subside below 8 ft tonight. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere the next several days, with seas in the 5
to 8 ft range subsiding to 4-6 ft by Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1028 mb high pressure is centered near 32N134W. A ridge extends
SW from the high to near 18N117W. The gradient between higher 
pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the vicinity of
the ITCZ, and within the monsoon trough, is supporting a large 
area of fresh trade winds roughly from 08N to 22N, west of 120W. 
These winds will remain in place for the next several days as
high pressure persists north of the area.

Long period NW swell covers much of the waters, with seas of 8 to 
11 ft. Sea heights will slowly subside through Sat. Reinforcing
northwesterly swell, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, will push southward
into the waters north of 20N Sun night into Tue.

$$
Mundell