000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110353
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Dec 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N97W to a 1012 mb 
low pressure near 10N110W to 08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 110W and 125W, and 
within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 125W and 137W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the trough axis between 97W and
104W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate W to NW winds west of
Mexico including the Baja peninsula. A large scale NW swell event
is across across the open waters off Mexico. Seas greater than 
8 ft will prevail over the forecast waters through Fri. 

The NW swell will gradually subside through Sun. A new round of 
NW swell with wave heights of 8-10 ft will affect the waters
west of Baja California Norte this weekend, followed by a more 
significant push of NW swell early next week, with seas of 10-14
ft possible off Baja California Norte late Mon or early Tue.

Little change in winds is expected through Sat. Strong NW to N 
winds are expected in the northern half of the Gulf of California
on Sun as high pressure builds north of the area. Gap winds to 
gale force are possible Mon and Mon night in Gulf of Tehuantepec
as a cold front moves into the western Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will continue across the Gulf
of Papagayo through Fri morning. Seas to 9 ft extend downwind 
of the Papagayo region. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Fri night.
Fresh north winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Fri
morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail
south of the monsoon trough the next several days, with seas in 
the 4 to 6 ft range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1029 mb high pressure is centered near 33N134W. A ridge extends
SW from the high to near 20N118W. The gradient between higher 
pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the vicinity 
of the ITCZ, and within the monsoon trough, is supporting a large
area of fresh trade winds roughly from 08N to 22N, west of 120W.
These winds will remain in place for the next several days as 
the high pressure persists north of the area.

Long period NW swell covers much of the waters, with seas of 8 to 
11 ft. Sea heights will slowly subside through Sat. Reinforcing
northwesterly swell, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, will push southward
into the waters north of 20N Sun night into Tue.

$$
Mundell