000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100855
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N98W to 1012 mb low 
pressure near 09N114W to 09N121W. The ITCZ continues from 
09N121W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04N to 07N between 89W and 93W, from 08N to 10N 
between 106W and 116W, and from 08N to 10N between 132W and 
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between weakening high pressure over the 
Gulf of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough has
loosened. Winds have diminished below gale force as indicated by
the overnight ASCAT pass. Seas remain in the 10-12 ft range. 
Winds and seas will continue to decrease today. By tonight, winds
will diminish to 20 kt or less, and seas will subside below 8 
ft. Swell generated from this gap wind event has spread well away
from the Tehuantepec region, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching 
as far west as 115W in a mix of NE swell from the gap winds and 
longer period NW swell.

NW swell prevails across the open waters off Mexico. Seas greater
than 8 ft prevail over much of these waters, with seas peaking
near 11 ft off Baja California Sur. The swell will slowly 
subside, and fall below 8 ft over much of these waters Sat. A new
round of NW swell with wave heights in excess of 8 ft will reach
the waters off Baja California Norte this weekend. These seas 
will push southward but subside to below 8 ft through early next 
week.

A surface trough extends west of Baja California from a 1013 mb 
surface low over Baja California Norte. The low will weaken to a 
trough early today. High pressure will build in the wake of the 
low and trough, supporting fresh northerly winds across the Gulf 
of California late Sat through late Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will 
prevail through early Fri as high pressure prevails over the 
western Caribbean. Seas will build to near 10-11 ft today, with 
seas greater than 8 ft extending well downwind of the Papagayo 
region by the end of the week.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south 
of the monsoon trough through the next several days where seas 
in the 4-6 ft range will prevail.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and within the 
monsoon trough, is supporting an area of moderate to fresh trade 
winds roughly from 08N to 20N west of 125W. High pressure will
build across the northern waters, with moderate to fresh winds
prevailing from 10N to 20N west of 120W the next several days. 

Long period NW swell is propagating over the forecast region. 
Seas 8 ft or greater cover the waters west of 100W. Seas will 
slowly subside, and fall below 8 ft over much of the area east of
115W by Sat. Looking ahead, a new round of northerly swell of 8 
to 10 ft will push south into the waters north of 25N early next 
week. 

$$
AL