005 
AXPZ20 KNHC 022123
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Dec 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong northerly gap winds and
building seas are expected across the Tehuantepec region most of
the forecast period. These winds will be associated first with a
cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico, then with a
surface trough developing from the central Bay of Campeche to 
offshore of Brownsville, Texas on Sat. Strong winds, with frequent
gusts to gale-force are expected Thu night through Sat night.
Then, sustained gale force winds are possible Sun through Mon 
night. Seas are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with this gap
wind event. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.html for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends 09N83W to 06N95W to 09N105W to 
10N114W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 
09N between 83W and 88W, from 09N to 11N between 110W and 114W, 
and from 10N to 12N between 114W and 123W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Norte and
N of Cabo San Lazaro. Fresh to locally strong winds will funnel 
through the Baja California Norte passes into the offshore waters
tonight through Fri morning as strong high pressure builds over 
the Great Basin region. Strong northerly winds and building seas
of 8-10 ft are expected in the Gulf of California through Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf 
of Papagayo over the next couple of days, particularly during 
the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhwere, light to 
gentle winds are expected north of the monsoon trough, with 
moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the trough axis, through
the upcoming weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb located near 32N132W continues to dominate
the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 09N to 
20N W of 130W, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere north of 
10N and west of 120W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft across this area based 
on altimeter data.

An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 13N to 17N between 105W and 109W. This convective 
activity is associated with a surface trough forecast to drift 
westward. 

Long period NW swell will propagate across the NW waters tonight,
building seas to 12 to 15 ft W of a line from 30N129W to 16N140W.
on Thu. Sea heights of 8 to 12 ft will dominate most of the 
forecast region N of 10N W of 115W, and S of 10N W of 125W by Fri
morning.

$$
GR