000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261453 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 10N90W to 07N95W to 12N121W to 10N125W. The ITCZ continues from 10N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N east of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 90W and 95W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 103W and 110W, from 08N to 13N between 110W and 118W, and from 08N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds over the central and southern Gulf of California, and the waters west of the Baja California will persist through This evening as a broad high pressure ridge prevails across the regional waters. A decaying cold front will move across Baja Norte tonight and usher in fresh to locally strong NW winds over the northern Gulf of California, spreading southward through Fri evening and then persisting through early Mon. Seas are expected to build to 5-8 ft inside the Gulf of California Fri through early Mon. Moderate N to NE winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California behind the passage of this front, with strong NE winds shooting through the gaps between the higher elevations of Baja and extending 90 nm offshore. Large NW swell has propagated into the Baja California Norte waters, and will spread across the Baja Sur waters early Fri through Sat evening. Peak seas are anticipated to build near 13 ft tonight west of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong north winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec within 150 nm of the coast through Fri morning, and then again Fri night. Nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh north winds can be expected thereafter through Sun. A strong cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and produce another gale force gap wind event across Tehuantepec beginning early Mon, possibly reaching strong gale force by late Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night into the early morning hours over the Papagayo region. Otherwise expect moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of 10N. Moderate cross equatorial swell is expected to move into the waters off Ecuador and Colombia this afternoon and invade the waters of Central America Fri, building seas to 6-7 ft, then subsiding Sun into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elongated surface low pressure is centered on a 1011 mb low near 16n125w. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 120 nm NW quadrant of the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 300 nm across the northeast quadrant of the low. The low will shift westward today while gradually weakening. A broad ridge extends from a 1033 mb high near 38N135W southeastward across the waters off Baja California Norte to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A dry cold front extends from 30N117W to 28N122W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate to fresh NE trades, with locally strong winds, across the area waters north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft across this area except 10-11 ft across NW portions where large NW swell is arriving. This fresh NW swell has propagated into the N waters, with seas to 10 - 13 ft ft north of 26N and west of 121W. The NW swell will continue to spread south- southeastward across the northern waters, peaking near 14 ft over the northern waters N of 20N and E of 132W into Fri. Seas will slowly decay into the weekend. Looking ahead, another pulse of NW swell with seas up to 8 ft is forecast to push southeast of 30N140W Sat night through Sun night, with larger NW swell moving southeast into the area early next week. $$ AL