000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260956 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Elongated surface low pressure centered on a 1011 mb low near 15N123W has shifted slowly westward during the past 24 hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and fresh to strong NE winds continue within 300 nm across the north semicircle of the low. Long term satellite imagery and model analysis suggest that the tropical wave associated with this surface low has shifted westward of this low during the past few days, and the remaining energy is suggested to be along 132W, and is difficult to discern. The tropical wave has been dropped from the current surface analysis. The low will shift westward to along 125W by Thu night while gradually weakening. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 08N93W to 1012 mb low pres near 11N112W to 1011 mb low pres near 15N123W to 10N125W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N- 08N east of 84W, from 07N-12.5N between 88W and 94W, and from 08N-12N west of 134W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted from 10N-13N between 103W and 108W, and from 07N-13N between 109W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds over the central and southern Gulf of California, and the waters west of the Baja California will persist through Thu evening as a broad high pressure ridge prevails across the regional waters. Thu night a decaying cold front will move across Baja Norte and usher in fresh to locally strong NW winds over the northern Gulf of California, spreading southward through Fri evening and then persisting through early Mon. Seas are expected to build to 5-8 ft inside the Gulf of California Fri through early Mon. Moderate N to NE winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California behind the passage of this front, with strong NE winds shooting through the gaps between the higher elevations of Baja and extending 90 nm offshore. Large NW swell has begin to enter the Baja California Norte waters tonight, and will spread across the Baja Sur waters early Fri through Sat evening. Peak seas are anticipated to build near 13 ft Thu night west of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong north winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec within 150 nm of the coast tonight through Fri morning, and then again Fri night. Nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh north winds can be expected thereafter through Sun. A strong cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and produce another gale force gap wind event across Tehuantepec beginning early Mon, possibly reaching strong gale force by late Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night into the early morning hours over the Papagayo region. Otherwise expect moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of 10N. Moderate cross equatorial swell is expected to move into the waters off Ecuador and Colombia this afternoon and invade the waters of Central America Fri, building seas to 6-7 ft, then subsiding Sun into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from a 1034 mb high near 38N135W southeastward through 30N125W to 17N107W. A dry cold front is being pushed southward into the area tonight and extends from 30N120W to 29N125W to 30N131W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate to fresh NE trades across the area waters north of 10N and west of 120W, with winds fresh to strong from 10N to 14N and W of 136W, and ahead of the cold front from 26N to 30N west of 132W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft across this area except 10-11 ft across NW portions where large NW swell is arriving. This fresh NW swell has propagated into the N waters, with seas to 10 -12 ft ft north of 26N and west of 121W. The NW swell will continue to spread south- southeastward across the northern waters tonight with seas peak at 10-14 ft over the northern waters N of 20N and E of 132W early Thu into Fri. Seas will slowly decay into the weekend. Looking ahead, another pulse of NW swell with seas up to 8 ft is forecast to push southeast of 30N140W Sat night through Sun night, with larger NW swell moving southeast into the area early next week. $$ Stripling