000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, from 09N to 18N, moving westward around 5 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure center associated with this wave is located near 14.5N123W. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the NE semicircle of the low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N73W to 08N88W to low pressure near 14.5N123W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N124W to 10N136W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-10N east of 84W, from 05N-10N between 89W and 94W, and from 08N-11N west of 133W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted from 07N-11N between 109W and 115W, and from 12N-19N between 110W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California and the waters west of the Baja California peninsula will persist through Thu afternoon as a broad high pressure ridge prevails across the regional waters. Thu night a decaying cold front will begin to usher in fresh to locally strong NW winds over the northern Gulf of California, spreading southward through Fri night and then persisting through Mon evening. Seas are expected to build to 5-8 ft inside the Gulf of California Fri through early Mon. Large NW swell will begin to invade the Baja California Norte waters tonight, spreading across the Baja Sur waters Thu evening through Sat evening. Peak seas are anticipated to build near 13 ft Thu night west of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong north winds are expected to return across the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14.5N late tonight through Fri morning, with moderate to fresh thereafter through Sun. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and produce another gale force gap wind event across Tehuantepec beginning Sun late afternoon, possibly reaching strong gale force by late Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night into the early morning hours over the Papagayo region. Otherwise expect moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of 10N. Moderate cross equatorial swell is expected to move into the waters off Ecuador and Colombia Thu evening and invade the waters of Central America Fri, building seas to 6-7 ft, subsiding by the end of the weekend into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from a 1033 mb high near 39N137W southeastward to 30N122W to 20N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate to fresh NE trades across the area waters north of 10N and west of 120W, with winds fresh to strong from 10N to 14N and W of 136W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft across this area. These conditions will change little through this evening. Fresh NW swell has propagated into the far NW waters, with seas to 10 ft. A small area of fresh to strong winds is embedded in this swell area, just ahead of a cold front just north of 30N that will sink into the area tonight and Thu. The NW swell will continue to spread south-southeastward across the northern waters tonight with seas peak at 10-15 ft over the northern waters N of 20N and E of 132W early Thu into Fri. Seas will slowly decay into the weekend. Looking ahead, another pulse of NW swell with seas up to 8 ft is forecast to push southeast of 30N140W Sat night through Sun night, with larger NW swell moving southeast into the area early next week. $$ Stripling