817 AXPZ20 KNHC 252023 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, from 10N to 18N, moving westward around 5 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure center associated with this wave is located near 14.5N122.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the NE semicircle with a band of similar convection noted between 150 nm and 360 nm in the NE and E quadrants of the low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09.5N84W to 10N110W to low pressure near 14.5N122.5W to 11N127W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N127W to 08N14W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 84W, from 05N to 10N between 87W and 92W, from 10N to 14N between 109W and 113W, and from 08N to 10N between 133W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 101W and 106W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California and the waters west of the Baja California peninsula will persist through Thu as a broad high pressure ridge prevails across the regional waters. Thu night a decaying cold front will begin to usher in fresh to locally strong NW winds over the northern Gulf of California, spreading southward through Mon evening. Seas are anticipated to build to 5-7 ft inside the Gulf of California Fri through early Mon. Large NW swell invades the Baja Norte waters tonight, spreading across the Baja Sur waters Thu evening through Sat evening. Peak seas are anticipated to be near 13 ft Thu night west of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong north winds are expected to return across the Gulf of Tehuantepec from late tonight through Fri morning, with moderate to fresh thereafter through Sun. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and produce another gale force gap wind event across Tehuantepec beginning Sun late afternoon, possibly reaching strong gale force by late Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night into the early morning hours over the Papagayo region. Otherwise expect moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of 10N. Moderate cross equatorial swell is expected to move into the waters off Ecuador and Colombia Thu evening and invade the waters of Central America Fri, building seas to 6-7 ft, subsiding by the end of the weekend into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from a 1035 mb high near 40N137W southeastward to 30N125W to 20N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate to fresh NE trades across the area waters north of 10N and west of 120W, with winds fresh to strong from 12N to 14N and W of 136W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft across this area, locally to 11 ft near the fresh to strong winds. These conditions will change little through this evening. Fresh NW swell has propagated into the far NW waters, with seas to 11 ft. A small area of fresh to strong winds is embedded in this swell area due to a locally tight pressure gradient. The NW swell will continue to spread south-southeastward across the northern waters tonight. Seas will peak 10-15 ft over the northern waters N of 20N and E of 132W early Thu into Fri. Seas will slowly decay into the weekend. Looking ahead, another set of NW swell with seas up to 8 ft is forecast to push southeast of 30N140W Sat night through Sun night, with a larger set of NW swell pushing southeast early next week. $$ Lewitsky