000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251512 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W/123W, from 11N to 18N, moving westward around 5 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure center associated with this wave is located near 15N122W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the low center. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the border of Panama/Costa Rica at 09N84W to 10N110W to low pressure near 15N122W to 10N128W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 82W, from 08N to 11N between 84W and 90W, and within 180 nm N of the monsoon trough between 115W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 100W and 105W, and from 08N to 10.5N between 133W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California and the waters west of the Baja California peninsula will persist through Thu as a broad high pressure ridge prevails across the regional waters. Thu night a cold front will usher fresh to strong NW winds that will spread down the entire length of the Gulf of California through Sun night. Seas are anticipated to build to 6-8 ft inside the Gulf of California Fri through Sun. Moderate NW swell currently prevailing west of Baja California Norte will subside briefly today, before large NW swell invades all of the Baja offshore waters tonight through Fri night. Peak seas are anticipated to be near 13 ft Thu night west of Baja California Norte. Northerly gap winds have diminished to moderate this morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and will remain light through this evening. Fresh to strong north winds are expected to return across the Gulf from late tonight through Fri morning, with moderate to fresh thereafter through Sun. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and produce another gale force gap wind event across Tehuantepec beginning Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night into the early morning hours over the Papagayo region. Otherwise expect moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of 10N. Moderate cross equatorial swell is expected to move into the waters off Ecuador and Colombia Thu evening and invade the waters of Central America Fri, building seas to 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from a 1035 mb high near 40N140W southeastward to 30N127W to 15N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE trades across the area waters north of 10N and west of 120W, with winds fresh to strong near 15N122W and 12N135W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft across this area. These conditions will change little through this afternoon. Fresh NW swell has propagated into the far NW waters, with seas to 10 ft, and will spread southeastward through today to maintain seas near 8 ft across the northern waters north of 25N. Large NW swell will then move into the northern waters tonight. Seas will peak 10-15 ft over the northern waters N of 20N and E of 132W early Thu into Fri. Seas will slowly decay into the weekend. Looking ahead, another set of NW swell is forecast to push southeast of 30N140W Sat night through Sun night. $$ Lewitsky