000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230945 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough continues to support minimal gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region tonight. Fresh to strong N to NE winds extend well offshore from Tehuantepec to near 12N98W. Peak seas to 13 ft prevail downwind of the Gulf. Associated seas to 8 ft and greater extend downwind of the outer edge of the offshore waters near 09N99W. This long-lived gale event has already peaked in intensity, as the ridge is slowly weaken across the Gulf of Mexico. However, gale force winds are expected to last through early Tue, while winds diminish slightly Mon afternoon. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less and seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W N of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 12.5N between 86W and 91W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W, from 03N to 19N, moving west at 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center associated with this wave is located near 10N116.5W, producing fresh to strong SE winds and seas 8 to 9 ft across the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 15N between 112W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 09N82W to 10N88W to 07N100W to 11.5N113W to low pres near 10N116.5W 1008 mb to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12.5N between 86W and 91W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 13.5N between 99W and 103W, from 08.5N to 15N between 112W and 118W, from 08N to 11N between 118W and 128W, and from 08N to 09.5N between 134W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for details. A broad ridge extends SE across the Baja California offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is supporting generally gentle moderate northerly winds across the waters off the coast of Baja California. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere south of 23N. Wave heights are 4-6 ft in long-period northwest swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft across the far northern waters. Northerly winds have diminished to gentle across the central and southern portions of the Gulf of California and will shift to southerly Mon. Strong northerly winds will develop off the California coast tonight and Mon, with fresh winds spreading into the northern waters of Baja California Norte late Mon. This will usher in increasing northerly swell that will raise wave heights across the Baja waters to 6-9 ft. Large NW swell will move into the Baja offshore waters Wed night, with seas 8 ft or greater spreading southward across the Baja California waters through Fri night. Seas associated to this swell will peak at 12-15 ft off off Baja California Norte late Thu afternoon into Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will then spread southward across the Gulf of California Thu night through Sat across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south to southwest winds prevail south of 09N east of 95W, with gentle winds north of 10N. The exception to this is moderate NE will spilling out of the Papagayo region. Wave heights are generally 5-6 ft in mixed south to southwest swell. Large seas generated across the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight before gradually subsiding Mon. Winds and seas will diminish slightly south of 09N MOn and Tue, then increase modesty Wed. Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night over the Papagayo region Mon through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge dominates the waters west of 115W tonight, centered on a 1032 mb high near 36N148W. The associated pressure gradient is producing fresh to strong tradewinds across the area waters from 08N to 25N west of 124W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft across this area in fading NW swell. These conditions will change little through Wed. Fresh NW swell has propagated into the far NW waters, with seas to 8 ft and will spread southeastward through mid week to maintain seas near 8 ft across the northern waters north of 26N. Large NW swell will move into the northern waters late Wed. Seas will peak 10-16 ft over the northern waters N of 20N and E of 130W early Thu into Fri. $$ Stripling